← ALL ISSUESISSUE 001FRI 07·24·26POWERED BY UNDERWRITE
SEC filings, read like a desk — 30 filings this week
across five consumer loan books, two regional 10-Ks, and the week's capital actions. Every figure cited.
The Lead · Issue 001
The Consumer, According to Five Loan Books
Everyone quotes one CEO on the U.S. consumer. We read all five loan books — JPM, BAC,
WFC, C, COF, from their Q2 SEC filings. The verdict: normalizing, not cracking — but watch
what the banks do versus what they say. All five just raised dividends 11–14%, while two of five
are still building loss reserves underneath.
UST 10Y
4.67%
2s10s
+36bp
IG OAS
78bp
VIX
18.7
Corpus read
30 filings
FRED · as of 2026-07-24 close · market data, not filing content
01
WFC is the clean print.
Net charge-offs $883M, down 11% y/y; provisions down 9% against 12% loan growth;
ROTCE 17.7%. Scharf, verbatim: "Consumers and businesses remain very
strong… charge-offs and delinquencies are lower." His own hedge: "favorable
conditions do not go on forever."
WFC 8-K · 2026-07-14
02
Cards are healing — even the deep-subprime end.
COF 30+ day card delinquencies 3.59% vs 3.98% a year ago; NCO rate 3.30% from 3.39%;
purchase volume up 27%. Citi's Fraser: credit "better than expected."
JPM card NCOs 3.34% vs 3.40%, card spend up 10%.
COF 10-K · C 8-K · JPM 8-K
03
The hedge underneath.
JPM provisions +33% y/y ($14.2B) against +11% loan growth — building three times faster
than the book grows. COF provisions $20.7B, a 38.7% provision-to-revenue ratio as Discover
arrives on balance sheet. WFC and Citi are releasing. Same economy, opposite reserve decisions.
JPM 10-K FY25 · COF 10-K FY25
"Investors are paying for a payments network and receiving a subprime credit card
company's income statement."
— The desk, on Capital One post-Discover
04
The soft spot nobody leads with.
JPM consumer-bank deposits fell for a second straight year (−1% in '25 after −6% in '24).
Outflow is slowing — stabilization or late-stage savings drawdown, your call. Watch for the turn
positive.
JPM 10-K FY25
05
Disclosure tell.
BAC said the least — a 14% dividend raise, "no material changes" to risk
factors, no consumer metrics up front. Quietest print of the five. With 69 million clients, they
have the data; they chose not to frame it.
BAC 10-Q · 8-K · 2026-07
Reserving into growth — or releasing out of it
Q2 2026 year-over-year change: provisions for credit losses vs. loan balances
(JPM & COF full-year 2025)
Provisions Δ%Loans Δ%
Bank
Provisions Δ%
Loans Δ%
Period
WFC
−9
+12
Q2'26 y/y
C
−14
+9
Q2'26 y/y
JPM
+33
+11
FY2025 y/y
COF
+76
+38
FY2025 y/y · incl. Discover
SOURCE: company 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings via Underwrite · *JPM & COF shown FY2025 y/y;
COF reflects Discover consolidation
What the Lawyers Changed
+ NEWKEY added an AI risk factor — first time.
New in the FY2025 10-K, absent a year ago: "Our development and use of AI…
exposes us to inherent risks." ESG risk promoted from Reputation to Strategic. CRE
language de-escalated — "most severely impacted" is gone.
+ NEWGOOGL now warns AI could disrupt its own ad model.
"AI is quickly reshaping the advertising industry… there is no assurance
that we will adapt effectively." No equivalent language in the prior 10-K.
+ NEWRF elevated tariffs and its own bond portfolio.
New bullet on securities-portfolio sensitivity; expanded tariff language. Management added
that NII rate-sensitivity "has been reduced recently."